Money management in sportsbetting
Betting too much on each game
Spending a long time understanding money management in sportsbetting gives you one major conclusion : 99% of sports bettors are betting too much. Think not? Think again.
Would you “bet” 25% of your entire savings account on a single stock that had a 50% chance of going down tomorrow? Of course not. Then why are so many sports bettors willing to risk 20%+ of their bankroll on a single game? It’s easy to risk too much without knowing it.
If I offered you a 10% advantage in a game of chance (55% for you vs. 45%) for 500 bets, would you take that bet? Of course you would. Over the long haul (500 bets), the law of large numbers dictates that you would end up very close to 55% winners (275 winners vs. 225 losers). If we were betting $100 per bet, you’d be up about $5,000 in the end. Easy money.
Now let’s say that I had one constraint. I told you you could start with no more than $500 (your bankroll) and if you ran out of money, you couldn’t re-load. In essence, I was forcing you to bet 20% of your bankroll on each bet. Would you still take it? Think you could still take me for $5,000?
You had better not! You are virtually guaranteed to go bankrupt in this situation. Over the long run, you will come close to 55% winners – it’s a mathematical certainty. But, over the short term, you are guaranteed nothing. Strange streaks will happen. They always do. Over 500 bets, you could easily go 5 or 10 bets in a row (or even more) without winning. You could go 2-18 during a 500 bet session. If I forced you to bet 20% of your bankroll, you’d be crazy to do it because I would take your money like taking candy from a baby.
Yet, in sports betting, most bettors routinely do the equivalent of taking this bet! Almost every sports bettor bets too much per game relative to the size of their bankroll. They don’t think twice about laying half of their entire remaining bankroll on one week’s NFL games. The conclusion is this…
Why The House Wins
Based on my sports betting experience the only explanation is:
The bookie win because you bet too much on every event
You run out of money before you have a chance to let the laws of large numbers work for you. They are banking on your lack of discipline. That’s the main reason (not bad picking) that most sports bettors lose and why The House laughs to the bank.