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Canadian Grey Cup tip

Montreal (-9.5) vs. Saskatchewan  in Calgary, Alberta [6:30 pm EST Sunday]

Grey Cup tips

This is essentially a home game for the Green Riders. Of the 40,000+ fans expected at this game, I suspect 30,000+ will be sporting the Riders’ Green complete with the watermelons on their heads. But as popular as it will be to support the Riders in the stands, the game is still being played on the field and that game is against the CFL’s most dominate team – the Montreal Alouettes.2009 Results between Montreal and Saskatchewan:

07/18/09 MONT 43 – SAS 10 MONT -4 U 57.5  and  08/21/09 SAS 25 – MONT 34 SAS 12 O 54.5

Montreal only lost 3 of 19 games this season and were head and shoulders above the rest of the League. I believe the most telling stat that jumps out at me is the average offensive points scored to defensive points allowed. Montreal averaged 33.3 pts. per game while only giving up an average of 18.0 for a differential of 15.3 on average per game. Conversely the Riders differential was only 1.7 (28.6 / 26.9) which gives the Als a two TD edge on average per game.

Montreal’s QB Anthony Calvillo quite simply has the best 3 step drop in professional football today – in any league. It’s 1.5 seconds and bang that ball is out of his hand, and on target, and on time. That is going to be extremely difficult for SK to defend, and watching game film from last week’s Eastern Final is not going to help them. BC was absolutely destroyed by their inability to do anything to disrupt Calvillo’s timing. That game was literally over early in the 2nd Quarter.

The weather could play a factor in this game, but only for the total as I see it. Sunday afternoon’s forecast for kickoff has temps around 3C/35F with clear skies. The wind however could play a factor. 20+ kph winds are expected with gust to 40+ kph. This could cause some issues in the kicking game, and I’m hoping just enough to push the number (55.5) Under.

I think the wind/wind chill and cold temps will be more of a factor on receiver’s hands trying to pull in passes.

Under is 4-0 in Roughriders last 4 playoff games.

Under is 4-1 in Alouettes last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Montreal.

The free tip for the Canadian Grey Cup is :

Play under 55,5 @1,88 only at Pinnacle

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